NCAA Tournament predictions, knee-jerk edition.

South
Florida should cruise into a Sweet 16 meeting with UCLA. Or is there a chance Pittsburgh uglies up the second round enough to make it interesting? Ohio State can’t score and neither can Syracuse. Kansas doesn’t have Joel Embiid (beware New Mexico). Yup, I’m an Aaron Craft groupie, so my knee-jerk regional final is Florida vs. Ohio State.

West
Arizona’s bracket to lose. Maybe because I don’t think much of Creighton (Doug!), San Diego State (won at Kansas!) or Oklahoma. Fun potential second round matchup: Creighton vs. Nebraska. There’s a tiny land mine for Arizona in the second round against Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State, but the Wildcats should win and comfortably reach the regional final against … Baylor? I’m tempted to pick Oregon, but I’ll reluctantly go with Baylor over Wisconsin.

Midwest
Three Final Four teams from last year are in this bracket, and Duke and Kentucky. Good luck with all this, undefeated Wichita State. What was the committee thinking? It clearly must not have wanted Wichita State to go unbeaten. The Shockers’ possible road to the Final 4: Kentucky, hot Louisville, and Duke/Michigan. That’s virtually impossible. I’m not sure Wichita State gets out of the first weekend. Gut reaction: Louisville vs. Michigan.

East
A very soft region. The top two seeds aren’t going to get much love (Virginia, Villanova). Everyone’s going to be on Harvard over Cincinnati. Most fun second round matchup? Saint Joe’s vs. Villanova, a Philadelphia rivalry that would be played in Buffalo. My gut, which is never right, says Michigan State vs. Iowa State.

So my 1st Final Four, without looking in-depth at stats or matchups:
East: Iowa State
South: Florida
West: Arizona
Midwest: Louisville

Florida over Iowa State and Arizona over Louisville.

Give me Arizona over Florida for the title.

Michigan State was given a No. 4 seed by the NCAA selection committee, after running through the Big Ten tournament. Meanwhile, everyone seems to be picking Tom Izzo’s gang to go to the Final Four, with many picking them to win it. (This isn’t actually true, unless you happen to be in an office pool in East Lansing, or in ESPN’s Bristol studios, as all the pundits picked the Spartans).

So is Michigan State overvalued, or are the people letting the selection committee know just how inept they are in evaluating teams?

The selection committee has an interesting task, to which there is no perfect answer. Sometimes they take injuries into account; sometimes they don’t. They have to select 36 at-large teams and then seed the 68 entrants. There is not enough time to properly analyze all of them. However, they most likely missed big time with Michigan State, and I say that not based on speculation, but on the numbers from this year.

[RELATED: NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Florida Tops South Region Full of Freshman Phenoms]

Michigan State’s season is a tale of two teams. One, the preseason top five team with plenty of veteran talent and ability. The other, an injury-filled unit missing at least one of its four key starters: Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Adreian Payne, and Branden Dawson. As it turns out, those two teams played an almost identical number of games, and an equal number of games against tournament-quality teams (I’ll define that as Top 70 in Pomeroy’s ratings). Here’s how those two teams did (note: I included the North Carolina game as healthy because Gary Harris played, though he was hurt and missed 3 games on either side of the contest):

• Healthy Team: 15-3 overall, 7-3 against tournament-quality teams
• Injured Team: 11-5 overall, 3-5 against tournament-quality teams

There is much debate about how the committee should account for injuries. They should certainly be cautious when projecting the future, with an immediate injury (take Kyle Collinsworth of BYU for example, who played every game but was likely lost for the year in the final game). In this case, though, there was ample time and evidence to conclude that current Michigan State was better than overall Michigan State, and had a healthy profile to prove it. The committee makes judgments on plenty of teams based on fewer than 10 games against tournament-quality opponents.

[RELATED: NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Louisville and Duke Highlight Loaded Midwest]

I have little doubt, for example, that the games that Marcus Smart missed with Oklahoma State due to suspension got discounted. Oklahoma State had a RPI in the high 40’s because of those games, and went 0-3 against Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor while he was out.

In Michigan State’s case, we can look at the Pomeroy ratings rise and fall with the health of the team. After the first 6 games, they were 6th in the ratings. Four games later, with Harris injured, they dropped to 14th. In the five games that everyone was on the court again, they rose back to 8th. The Spartans then went through a 13 game stretch where they were missing Payne, Appling, and/or Dawson. They dropped back to 15th. After everyone returned, they played in 6 more games including the Big Ten tournament, rising back to 10th.

My estimate is that healthy Michigan State would have finished about 4th or 5th in the Pomeroy rankings, and had the profile of a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. An injured Michigan State was closer to 24th or 25th, and had the profile of a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Split the difference, and don’t try to account for healthy Michigan State entering tournament play, and you get a No. 4 seed.

Is Michigan State overvalued? Perhaps a little bit, in the sense that no one this year has more than a 16% chance. They also are better than the 10th best team in the country with all the starters playing. They are one of the five best teams in the country, and there was ample evidence for the Committee to see that, and seed accordingly, if they chose to evaluate it.

Instead, we get a bracket where two of the best six teams are No. 4 seeds. Good job, good effort, selection committee.

Maggie Q … man hits belching Taco Bell customer with a chair for not saying “excuse me” … Flight 370 mystery gets crazier by the day: Maldives residents claim to have seen a ‘low flying jet‘ … man tucks gun into his waistband, shoots himself in the genitals … man sues OK Cupid after date takes him for $70k … the serial urinator in Gainesville has struck again .. the oral history of Nirvana … man finds winning powerball ticket in his wallet after 11 days … it’s getting ugly in youth soccer these days … the Wolf of Wall Street apparently once lived here … he should have just bought her a McFlurry …

Providence is in the NCAA tournament, but this news is bigger: Two players are being investigated for sexual assault on campus. [WSJ]

The NCAA Tournament started last night, and NC State beat Xavier behind 25 points from TJ Warren. [Charlotte Observer]

Here’s one place you won’t find much Michigan State love. [SI]

The DeSean Jackson trade rumors will continue to swirl for the next 50 days up to the NFL draft. [NJ.com]

Neil Best’s time spent with Mike Francesa was so long, he’s added more stories here that were left on the cutting room floor. [Newsday]

“While Bortles has an average ANY/A rate for this group, it’s not too hard to find some red flags if you’re looking for them.” [Football Perspective]

Bo Jackson’s advice to Russell Wilson: Stick to football. [CSN Chicago]

“One of the largest mental health agencies in Minnesota abruptly shut its doors Monday, potentially stranding thousands of patients with severe mental illnesses and aggravating a statewide shortage of psychiatric care.” [Star Tribune]

Boston College fired basketball coach Steve Donahue, so who’s getting the job? [Herald]

At what point does this Astros TV situation become a big deal? I mean, there are a lot of Astros fans, right? [Chronicle]

The Ken Bone basketball era is over at Washington State: Five years, lots of losses. [Seattle Times]

Sure looks like he peed himself during a speech. The urine starts appearing around :18. [via Guyism]

Here’s Mike Francesa talking about being the No. 1 seed in our tournament. [via WFAN Audio]

High winds knocked over this 18-wheeler. [via Adam]

Very, very well done. Haven’t heard a deez nuts joke in years. [via BroBible]

[We're breaking down the Eastern bracket of the NCAA Tournament; see past entries on loaded Midwest; senior-laden South; and the West, land of the 7-footers]

Best 1st round matchup: (tie) Cincinnati vs. Harvard, Connecticut vs. Saint Joseph’s. When the brackets were released, it seemed the obvious 12-over-5 was Harvard beating the offensively-challenged Bearcats. And with good reason: Harvard is very good defensively, one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the field, registered a big upset last March, and has a “Hot” coach in Tommy Amaker. The Bearcats have Sean Kilpatrick, play stingy defense, and won at Memphis and Louisville this season. First to 45 wins? UConn has one of the best backcourts in the tournament, but it’s not like the Hawks haven’t seen talented guards – they beat VCU twice. Both games feel like they could end on the final possession.

Double Digit Darkhorses: Harvard (12), Providence (11), NC Central (14). Providence is here for two reasons: Bryce Cotton, one of the most underrated guards in the country, and free throw shooting (No. 2 in the country at 78 percent). North Carolina, its first round opponent, is one of the worst free throw shooting teams (344th, 62 percent). Central is a dangerous team that has won 20 in a row, won at NC State early in the season, and plays very feisty defense. Also, Iowa State doesn’t play defense. Hence: Ken Pom has the game 76-70 and the Vegas line is nine, but expect it to drop.

NBA Prospects to Watch: I count just three potential 1st round picks – Gary Harris and Adreian Payne (Michigan State), and Shabazz Napier (UConn) – but then a slew of players who could go in the second round. Iowa State has three – Melvin Ejim, Georges Niang and DeAndre Kane. UNC has two – Marcus Paige and James Michael McAdoo. Then there are guys like Joe Harris (Virginia), Shaq Goodwin (Memphis), Kilpatrick (Cincinnati), Cotton (Providence) who might get drafted. What’s most interesting to note is that among the Top 2 seeds, there’s really only one potential pro next year (Harris, who I think will have a nice international career).

Stupid Seeding: Michigan State. We don’t need to cover this, right? All you need to know about Sparty can be read right here.

Frivolous Facts: Of No. 1 seeds, Virginia had the worst record (6-4) against teams in the 2014 tournament. Villanova has lost four games – by 16, 28, 21, and one. Iowa State topped 90 points nine times this season; Virginia topped 80 once (November 30th against Missouri State). Delaware lost at Villanova by four, and at Ohio State by 12 early in the season.

We regret the error: Over the summer, I put out a “Top 50 players in college basketball” list. Been doing it for a couple years. People seem to hate/like it. When it came out, the biggest rankings that irked the masses were Ryan Arcidiacono, G, Villanova (28), Russ Smith, G, Louisville (26), and Marshall Henderson, G, Mississippi (25). Yes, it’s clear that Smith is not in the same category as those guys. He had his best season as a senior, while Arcidiacono slumped and Henderson didn’t improve. Unquestionably, Smith deserved to be in the Top 15.

Heart Says ____ in the Regional Final: Virginia vs. Iowa State. I grew up in Virginia; I have a 42:1 ticket for Iowa State to win the title. This pick could be squashed by Sunday night.

Head Says ____ in the Regional Final: Michigan State vs. Villanova.

Regional Winner: Michigan State.

It’s Wednesday, and you’ve erased your bracket multiple times.

You’re struggling, because you need to pick a winner soon, you don’t know whether or not to buy into all of the Michigan State hype, and that billion dollars isn’t going to win itself.

You just need to find the team that fits your personality.

Luckily, we’re here for you. Using Ken Pomeroy’s Four Factors, as well as other differentiators like team height, experience, and overall pace, we’ve done some back-of-the-napkin calculations to help you pick your NCAA tourney champion.

If you value strong leadership…

Do you root for the guys who have stuck it out in college? Are you a college basketball fan that hates the one-and-done rule? Well, the numbers may be dwindling, but a few teams fit your preferences.

The Creighton Blue Jays: If it’s a veteran group that also happens to be really good at shooting the ball and carving teams up with lethal offense, then Creighton is your team.  You probably know about Doug McDermott, since Sports Illustrated recreated the Larry Bird cover, and he has scored 3,105 points in his college career. He plays with three other senior starters in Jahenns Manigat, eighth-year man Grant Gibbs, and Ethan Wragge. The nine-man rotation is all seniors and juniors. Oh, and Creighton ranks 1st in the country in Effective Field Goal Percentage, thanks in large part to McDermott, though everyone in the starting lineup hits 40% or better from deep.

The Saint Louis Billikens and the Ohio State Buckeyes: If defense is more your thing, then you can meet Saint Louis, and also go all-in on Aaron Craft and the rest of the Buckeyes. Both of these teams are inconsistent on offense, but make opponents earn every point. Furthermore they are in the top 40 in turnover rate on defense, and opponent field goal percentage.

The Florida Gators: If you want an all-around title contender among the top sides, and still want the senior influence, then go for the Gators. Scottie Wilbekin won SEC Player of the Year, Casey Prather came on with a breakout senior year and Patric Young seems like he has been around forever.

The Massachusetts Minutemen: You like the old guys, so we can assume you like some tradition. Can I interest you in also liking the RPI? Massachusetts is led by 5’9″ Chaz Williams, and racked up results that impressed the RPI, going 13-4 in close games decided by 6 points or less. They don’t stand out in anything statistically (the turnovers on offense are a concern), and they are the lowest rated team in Pomeroy’s ratings among the top 6 seeds (50th).

If you value pluckiness…

Hey, you know what it’s like to be vertically challenged. Perhaps you flashback to those glory days when you and your buddies ran the collegiate intramural leagues with only one guy over 6’2″. You can identify with the teams that get it done without the next Patrick Ewing, or Magic Johnson sized point guards.

Iowa State Cyclones: Georges Niang is the tallest member of the rotation, at 6’7″, and he is more of a small forward who has the ability to pull bigger players outside and handle the ball. Melvin Ejim is a rebounding machine at 6’6″. Iowa State gets it done with versatility and utilizing everyone as a shooter, the ability to push and get their points in transition without committing turnovers.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams: VCU has Juvonte Reddic as the one interior presence. Other than that, it’s quickness, havoc, and more mayhem. VCU ranks first nationally in steal percentage, and creates a turnover once every four possessions.

Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners need Ryan Spangler in the game, as the only real inside defensive presence.  Oklahoma bears a decent resemblance to their conference rivals Iowa State, and has plenty of good shooters and likes to push it for points.

Michigan Wolverines: Mitch McGary’s injury forced the Wolverines to adapt. Michigan has decent size on the wings, but has only one true post in at a time, in Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford off the bench. Michigan, like other successful teams, does it with great shooting and avoiding turnovers on offense.

If you like things that go fast…

Maybe you want a team that can push it in transition and looks to run often. In that case, may we introduce you to…

The North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina doesn’t always play up to their height and length. In what is a common Williams trait, they like to push the pace, and can attack the glass on offense with their size. (The Tar Heels are not a good defensive rebounding team, though).

The UCLA Bruins: Steve Alford’s first team in Westwood has been far different stylistically than recent New Mexico squads. They have size, but also like to get out and run. Teams have had success shooting against them, but they force turnovers and limit multiple opportunities.

If you value teams who make things uncomfortable…

Then go with one of these squads, because they really go after it on defense.

Louisville Cardinals and Cincinnati Bearcats: On defense, these two rivals have a lot in common. They force turnovers, they are aggressive, and they make shots difficult. You can hurt both on the offensive glass (if you can get a shot up).  On offense, though, the Cardinals like to push the pace, while Cincinnati is methodical.

If you think shooting is overrated…

You can identify with the team that can lay some bricks, but also knows how to battle to make a house out of the pile. You’ve been known to scream, “Follow your shot!”  because you know that it is likely to bounce back at you.

San Diego State Aztecs and Syracuse Orangemen: These are your two bricklayer teams, ranking outside the top 200 in shooting (Cincinnati also applies), but getting a larger amount of their offense from getting on the offensive glass, along with just getting shots up (both fare well in turnovers). Both of these teams also rank near the top in turnovers forced on defense.  

Baylor Bears: Baylor turns the ball over, but they make up for it by getting on the offensive glass with their front court length (tallest team among this group). They are not, however, a good defensive rebounding team. 

Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas doesn’t have a problem making shots. They do at times, though, have a problem getting them, because of the highest turnover rate among top contenders. If they do get shots up, though, with Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid (maybe), and Perry Ellis, they are likely to get the second chance if it does not go in.

If you enjoy taking a measured approach…

These are the teams that are offensively efficient, but don’t particularly attack the glass with zeal.

Duke Blue Devils and Wisconsin Badgers: Both teams ranks in the top 10 in avoiding turnovers on offense, and in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage. Neither attacks the glass on offense, preferring to get back on defense in the event they miss. If you like your offense with a little more pep, go with Jabari Parker’s team. If you prefer a more deliberate pace, the choice is Wisconsin.

If you enjoy the slow kill…

The Arizona Wildcats, Wichita State Shockers, Michigan State Spartans, or Virginia Cavaliers: All of these highly seeded teams and national title contenders share some common traits. They all rank top 50 in opponent’s average possession length–meaning they make teams work for shots and run down the shot clock looking for one. With the exception of Michigan State, they all rank in the top 20 in opponent effective field goal percentage (and Michigan State’s healthy team that enters the NCAA would be there, but they battled injuries for half the season). Finally, when opponent’s do get shots up, its usually one and done.

And if you really, really can’t make up your mind…

Well, we are at the end, and one team remains. They do not rank in the top 20 in any of the underlying factors, but fare pretty well in all. They don’t have the overpowering defense, but they are pretty solid. They have pretty good shooters. They can run when necessary, or slow it down.

The Villanova Wildcats: Yes, if you have made it this far, and cannot decide, then Villanova is your team.

1. O-H-I-O owns the opening action: Ohio State and Dayton tip off the real tournament. Cincinnati gets underway (against Harvard) by the time that finishes, with tip set for 2:10. Productivity will be especially poor in south/central Ohio during this “workday”.

2. Pittsburgh, can you beat an 8 or 9 seed? Pittsburgh under Jamie Dixon has, well, underachieved in the NCAA tournament (or maybe overachieved in some cases in the regular season). Pittsburgh lost in the 8/9 game last year to Wichita State, who went to the Final Four. They lost in the second game in 2011, as a #1 seed, to Butler, who also went to the Final Four.

I wouldn’t look for the same fate from Colorado, but Pittsburgh, while expected to win this first game, needs to show up and win one of these games, to try to earn a chance to play the spoiler role for once in a 8/9 game versus a No. 1 seed.

3. Can Western Michigan avoid turnovers against Syracuse? Yes, Syracuse has not looked as good lately. If you want to look for reasons to expect a big upset, look no further than Syracuse losing at home to Boston College, and at home to Georgia Tech. Both of those teams power-rate similarly to Western Michigan.

If you want to find a reason to throw water on that, though, look at turnovers. Syracuse is in the top 20 in turnover rate on defense, while Western Michigan is 317th in turnover rate. They need to be better than that to have a chance against the Orangemen.

4. How will BYU cope with the loss of Kyle Collinsworth in rematch against Oregon?

In December, Oregon and BYU played an entertaining 100-96 overtime game (Oregon won). This time around, though, BYU will be without Kyle Collinsworth, who tore his ACL in the West Coast Conference final. Collinsworth was Mr. Versatile, at 6’6″, playing all over, from point to some minutes at the #4 when BYU went small. Without him, Matt Carlino and Anson Winder will have to step up to help Tyler Haws (23.4 points a game).

5. My picks, for entertainment and mocking purposes, on all games during this session:

Dayton (+6) vs. Ohio State. (11:15 start)
American (+13.5) vs. Wisconsin (11:40 start)
Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. Colorado (12:40 start)
Harvard (+3) vs. Cincinnati (1:10)
Western Michigan (+13) vs. Syracuse (approx. 1:45)
Oregon (-5) vs. BYU (approx. 2:10)
Albany (+21) vs. Florida (approx. 3:10)
Michigan State (-14.5) vs. Delaware (approx. 3:40)

Last year in the NCAA Tournament, Harvard upset New Mexico in the opening round, only to get slaughtered by Arizona in the second round.

Thursday, Harvard upset Cincinnati in the opening round, and tonight … yeah, they’re off to a bad start against mighty Michigan State. The Spartans are one of the tourney favorites, and look like it early, coming in waves on fast break after fast break and have grabbed a 15-9 lead. Here’s Gary Harris tossing a lob to Branden Dawson for the emphatic dunk.

Related: Sam Dekker Flies, Powers 2-Handed Dunk Through Oregon Defender
Related: North Dakota State’s Carlin Dupree Went Behind the Back And-1 Against SDSU

It’s been all UConn early on but Michigan State has crept back into it and things are nice and snug with just over six minutes remaining in the first half. It’s also worth noting that Bill Raftery is in the zone once again. On DeAndre Daniels: “Double D, destruction and dynamite.”

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Shabazz Napier scored 25 points, including a clutch 3-pointer and many free throws late, and Connecticut upset Michigan State to advance to the Final 4, 60-54. Connecticut, the first No. 7 seed to advance to the Final Four in 30 years (Virginia, 1984), can thank the NCAA Tournament seeding committee for the home game at Madison Square Garden. The boisterous crowd was heavily pro-UConn, and definitely helped the Huskies rally in the second half, erasing an 8-point deficit to grab a 10-point lead late.

Napier, who was 9-for-9 from the line, has done an incredible Kemba Walker impersonation in this tournament. He’s automatic from the foul line, virtually unguardable on the perimeter and so deadly from beyond the arc (4-of-9 Sunday). Napier and UConn will face Florida next weekend in Dallas in the Final Four. They met earlier this season in Connecticut and the Huskies won a buzzer beater on by – who else? – Napier.

Michigan State, the overwhelming favorite to win the title according to the pundits when the seeds were released, struggled offensively in the second half after taking a 32-23 lead. Napier scored nine points and somehow, that Spartans lead turned into a 41-36 deficit. Michigan State would never lead again. The Spartans pulled within 53-51 in the final minute, and then Napier hit three free throws to ice it.

Related: Shabazz Napier Gets Second Chance, Hits Buzzer Beater to Defeat Florida
Related: Shabazz Napier’s Buzzer-Beater Attempt Was Mesmerizing
Related: Shabazz Napier Hits 3, UConn Bench Introduces America to New Celebration

Tom Izzo must have thought he was watching a regular season Big Ten game on a cold Tuesday night in January rather than Game 3 of the Clippers-Warriors Western Conference quarterfinal at a festively intense Oracle Arena Thursday night. Who knows? When you’ve won an NCAA title and gone to six Final Fours maybe second-quarter NBA playoff games don’t excite you as much as they do the rest of the crowd.

Jokes aside, Izzo was in attendance to watch former Michigan State standout Draymond Green.

RELATED: Tom Izzo Dances To Sell Ladders, Looks like a Florida Lothario

College football season will be upon us, after a few more weeks of sunburn and sweat. To get you in the mood for the 2014 season, here are 14 potential trap games for some of the nation’s top teams. 

USC at Boston College [Sept. 13] Quick. Name Steve Sarkisian’s biggest road win at Washington… (crickets). The Trojans don’t have a lot of depth. Their schedule asks them to grind for 60 minutes on the road against a rough Stanford. Then, the very next week, fly all the way to the Northeast to play in Boston. BC are improving and got back to bowl play last year. Steve Addazio will have this game circled.

Florida State at N.C. State [Sept. 27] FSU should steamroll all who dare come before them. But, this game comes on the road, right after Clemson. N.C. State has won four of the past six against the Noles at Carter-Finley Stadium. Ten of the past 13 have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Maybe not a place where the Seminoles trip up. But it could be a place where they win by two touchdowns instead of five.

Oklahoma at TCU [Oct. 4] The Sooners travel to Fort Worth, right before Texas. Gary Patterson’s defense has carried over into the Big 12: best in the conference in both 2012 and 2013. They have, at the very least, been a tough out: four losses by a field goal or less last season, including Oklahoma in Norman. TCU should bounce back next year. Bob Stoops may be in imperious form, but he does have a penchant for dropping the ball on the road.

Auburn at Mississippi State [Oct. 11] The Tigers play Mississippi State the week after LSU. Five of the last seven games between these two have been decided by one score. Auburn has not won by more than a field goal in Starkville since 2006. Dan Mullen has a quarterback. His Bulldog team is as loaded as it will ever be. Home dogs in the SEC.

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina [Oct. 11] UNC is a classic sandwich game for the Irish. It comes right after a physical pummeling by Stanford and right before a trip to Tallahassee. The Tar Heels won six of seven to close last season, return the most starters in the ACC and will be hoping to cross the 8-win barrier in a third year under Larry Fedora.

Baylor at West Virginia [Oct. 18] Baylor takes the long road trip, after playing Texas away and TCU at home. The past two Briles-Holgorsen shootouts have produced absurd numbers of points. The Bears lose a lot on the offensive line and on defense. The Mountaineers should be a bit better. Baylor has not traveled well under Briles. West Virginia has a tendency to put up a fight against even the best conference teams at home. See: Oklahoma State 2013.

Michigan State at Indiana [Oct. 18] Sparty plays their fifth game in succession and second-consecutive on the road the week before Michigan. The Hoosiers have scored at least four touchdowns on MSU’s defense the last two games. Indiana’s offense should be better. MSU’s defense should be worse. Even the best Dantonio teams have been prone to dropping an inexplicable turd of a performance on the road. They are overdue after last year.

UCLA at Cal [Oct. 18] UCLA will be looking for a break after playing Arizona State, Utah and Oregon in succession. Not to mention road trips to Virginia and to Texas. Cal has something to build on offensively with Jared Goff and Khalfani Muhammad. The Bears won’t be good, but they will be improved. Expect them to jump on a team that takes them lightly at home.

Michigan vs. Indiana [Nov. 1] Michigan will take an emotional and physical beating in East Lansing. The Hoosiers should have a high-powered offense that can score points. The past three meetings between these teams, including two in Ann Arbor, have been nervy, hold-on-to-your-butts shootouts, including the 63-47 game last season.

Clemson at Wake Forest [Nov. 6] Not a strong read with this one. But it’s a Thursday night game, and a possible look ahead with Clemson going to Georgia Tech the following week. Dave Clawson’s Bowling Green teams played Florida well in 2012 and nearly upset Mississippi State in Starkville in 2013. Maybe he gets the Demon Deacons up for this one. You don’t just walk into BB&T Field…

Georgia at Kentucky [Nov. 8] Kentucky is sandwiched between Florida and Auburn. Georgia was profoundly underwhelming on the road last season. Their one win in regulation was against Florida, after nearly blowing a 20-point halftime lead. Kentucky has a decent record against Georgia the past few years, considering the talent disparity. Expect the Wildcats to put up a fight.

Oregon at Utah [Nov. 8] Oregon travels to Rice-Eccles right after Stanford, as well as Arizona, UCLA and Washington in the four weeks before. Utah has had some bad luck since joining the Pac 12. But, they have given good teams a hard time at home. They picked off Stanford in Salt Lake City last year, and hung in there in one-score losses to UCLA and Arizona State.

LSU at Arkansas [Nov. 15] This game comes the week after Bama. LSU’s run defense should be tenderized for Arkansas’ power attack. Eight of the past nine meetings between these two have been decided by one score. That includes last season in Baton Rouge.

Ohio State at Minnesota [Nov. 15] OSU faces Minnesota the week after a road trip to Michigan State. It’s a potential let down and a body blow game. Meyer’s Buckeye teams have won, but not dominated, on the road against teams that can fight back. Minnesota picked off Nebraska and Penn State at home last year. They played Wisconsin tough. It will be cold.

[USA Today Sports]

The College Football playoff starts next season. As a result, there has been a push from within to improve schedule strength. Marquee schools are seeking out marquee non-conference opponents (albeit at neutral sites). Conferences are discussing 9th and potentially 10th conference games, as well as forcing schools to schedule at least one major OOC opponent.

Improving schedules makes sense, from a business perspective. College Football is an entertainment property. Better games are more attractive to television viewers and to prospective season ticket buyers. What’s not clear is whether strength of schedule will affect the playoff.

What the selection committee will be examining has been left vague. The committee pledges to consider “obvious factors” such as strength of schedule. It has hired a service to provide “countless pieces of statistical information.” The only thing certain is the committee “will not use a single data point” similar to basketball’s RPI. If you had a formula for assessing a team’s raw performance against schedule strength, why have prominent individuals discussing it in a room? It’s also all but certain “strength of schedule” will preclude teams from outside the big five.

We don’t know what metrics the committee will be using. As Dave Bartoo points out on CFB Matrix, pretty much all of the SOS ones are problematic. None account for the physical demand placed on teams. Is playing six of the Top 30 teams in the Pac 12 really tougher than beating three of the Top 15 in the SEC?

Will any SOS metric outweigh the inherent fallacies in human polling? The selection committee, in many ways, may be a condensed version of previous human polls. Despite assertions committee members will be “breaking down film,” it is impossible to watch everything. As with the polls, much of this will come down to pure W-L record and box score tallying. Preseason polls will create an unfair basis for conventional wisdom. Events in November will outweigh distant events in September. But, it’s not a given the committee will function precisely like a poll.

A 13-0 or 12-0 season by a big five conference team or Notre Dame will be an automatic bid to the playoff come what may. But the concern for the Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12 and ACC is not what happens to an undefeated team. They need to get their one-loss champion in ahead of the one-loss, second-place SEC team.

Mark Dantonio believes his Michigan State team would have won a playoff last season. Whether they would have been chosen for one is another question.

Looking at 2013, Florida State (13-0) would have been in. So would Auburn as SEC champion. There were four candidates for the final two choices: one-loss B1G champ Michigan State, one-loss Big 12 champ Baylor, one-loss SEC team Alabama and two-loss Pac 12 champ Stanford. Traditional human polling would have favored Michigan State. The Spartans lost early to Notre Dame and closed with a big win over Ohio State. Baylor lost late to Oklahoma State. Ditto for Alabama against Auburn. Stanford, however, formidable, lost twice. But, what emerges from a collective discussion in a committee room may be different.

Selection Committee members will be conversing with other humans. That makes it more likely rational arguments emerge and take hold than with individual polling. The first thing that would have come up in a debate would have been schedule strength. Maybe they consult spreadsheets. But, let’s say they just eyeball it and plot out each team’s four best wins.

Alabama – LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech
Baylor – Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Michigan State – Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan
Stanford – Oregon, Arizona State (twice), UCLA

Alabama was the No. 1 team all season until a fluke play. They are in the SEC. They probably get the benefit of any doubt. Of the remaining three teams, Michigan State may be third best of the three. The Spartans missed Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State on their regular season schedule. The rest of the B1G had a down year. They lost their one notable OOC game, Notre Dame. Baylor played a down Big 12 and no one outside it (Wofford, Buffalo, ULM). Stanford, despite losing twice, has a very strong hand. That list doesn’t include Washington and Notre Dame, both better wins than Iowa.

The Spartans may have missed out in the committee in 2013. In 2014 and beyond, the one-loss SEC runner up probably has a stronger CV than Alabama. The one-loss B1G champ will be even less likely to have played all the toughest teams in the conference, thanks to the addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The rational response from the B1G would be to implement a nine-game conference schedule and ensure teams also try to play a 10th quality opponent, by whatever means necessary. It’s not an exact process, with teams fluctuating, but it stacks the deck in favor of a conference winner having multiple good wins. If the B1G were really ambitious, it would be trying to lure SEC programs North and beat them to erode the perception of superiority.

We’re not sure a Selection Committee will work. The creators are the same folks who created the BCS. Whatever selection of people you put in the room, it won’t have conclusive value. But, if the committee does work, it will be bucking conventional weaknesses in analysis and, through rational discussion, determining the four most deserving teams. We doubt committee members will be diving into drive efficiency charts, which means schedule strength, even if it’s just in perception, should play a major role. If the other major conferences don’t step up their conference and OOC game, they will be fighting for two places, instead of three (or four).

[USA Today Sports]

"Come all challengers from all distances…"
Here is the sign outside the Spartans' new locker room… #MSU #Spartans http://t.co/Ym6KMNeKTR—
David Harns (@isportsDave) August 05, 2014

The Michigan State Spartans splurged for a glass sign outside their locker room. Probably should have proofread that.

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Ashley Benson, actress … masturbating man falls in river, gets arrested … a photo of Olivia Wilde breastfeeding … “acting white” … drunk woman crashes car, police find stolen python around her neck … a Russian crime gang probably has a couple of your internet passwords … “Amputee Purple Heart recipient set to make pro wrestling debut” … Rex Ryan’s son, a redshirt freshman at Clemson, broke his collarbone … Sabrina Rodriguez, who once was fondled by a baboon on live TV, was arrested for stealing coach wallets from the mall … Princeton Review’s 2015 College rankings are out, and somehow, Syracuse is the No. 1 party school … James Corden to replace Craig Ferguson as host of the ‘Late Late Show’ … 16 of the most magnificent tresses in the world .. “Pope Francis Urges Young People Not To Waste Time on Internet” … your second weirdest masturbation story of the week, this one from New Orleans … Miley Cyrus and her wacky crafts … Donald Trump wants his name off two failed Atlantic City casinos bearing his name … you want to read about Boyhood’s Zoe Graham, right? … “Man accidentally shoots bullet through wall into adjoining Loudoun townhouse” …

The oral history of the Wonder Years. Probably one of my 15 favorite shows of all-time. [Paste Magazine]

Carolina message board finds that UNC critic Mary Willingham plagiarized her thesis. [News & Observer]

Dr. James Andrews says young athletes should STOP specialization and professionalism. Less year-round activity. [Cleveland.com]

A cop tells you why you should fight all speeding fines. [The Free Thought Project]

Spurs hire Becky Hammon as an assistant coach. [Express-News]

Chris Bosh now has a line of ties out: Mr. Nice Tie. [NYT]

Jim Nantz and Phil Simms likely will break the NFL record for most games announced in a season. [Classic TV Sports]

“A former employee is suing the Trail Blazers, charging that she was passed over for a promotion because of discrimination, then fired when she complained about it.” [Oregonian]

Guy who took the photo of the Michigan State sign that contained a spelling error, regrets his tweet. [I Sports Web]

Why is New York City no longer the mecca when it comes to producing elite basketball players? [Grantland]

Interesting read on reporters struggling to separate “reporting” from “personal feelings.” [NY Daily News]

Busted: “During the Federal Bureau of Investigation raid, a woman working on a laptop was ordered to put her hands up. She raised one hand and continued typing on a betting website with the other, according to a criminal complaint filed by the U.S.” [Bloomberg]

Struggling with this pinata, the kid just starts throwing punches. [via Herbie]

Michigan man threw a rave, and it’s being called one of the best parties in State history. “There’s always a coming home party.” He also uses the word “spaz” during the interview.

Very cool: How playing an instrument benefits your brain.

Giant beer pong with actress Nina Dobrev.

Commuters push train, help free man whose leg was stuck.

Daisy Lowe … Justin Bieber arrested in Ontario following fight after his ATV crashed into a minivan … 18-wheeler tips, dozens of cases of beer flood highway … is there a microchip implant in your future? … just how much weed was at a Phish show in Denver over the weekend? … the best sections in baseball stadiums to catch fly balls … check out this guy’s 43-pound cabbage … the state of Louisiana is losing 16 square miles a year … Piers Morgan has a great strategy to being hated on twitter … cool story about learning to speak French, which happens to be my 2nd favorite language … giant millipedes seized at San Francisco airport … a 33-year old man learns how to swim … a 103-year old sprinter has challenged Usain Bolt to a race … “California police use of body cameras cuts violence and complaints” .. worst of the worst: “Stripper mom of missing girl hangs up on cops, says she ‘had to get on stage’” … Florida has caterpillars covered in venom … mom hogging a swing at the park calls cops on dad who tries to take her kid out of the swing … for some reason, Hollywood will reboot “Escape from New York” … ranking Jim’s best pranks on Dwight from The Office …yuppies are killing the dive bar … mom gets 4-year old dressed up exactly like models, watches twitter account swell …

Is Bobby Petrino, the Louisville coach, a changed man? Spoiler: No. [SI.com]

The reporter who was alleged to have asked Doug Williams, “How long have you been a black quarterback?” has passed away. He didn’t actually ask the question, though. [Sentinel]

Tracy McGrady, 35, is pondering an NBA comeback. [Yahoo Sports]

Kliff Kingsbury wakes up at 4:30 am to break down film and work out. The pretty boy works hard. [Fox Sports]

Donovan McNabb doesn’t know if Nick Foles is a franchise QB yet, says he’s “never seen a QB move so slow.” [Crossing Broad]

The creator of the Facebook “I Fucking Love Science” is Elise Andrew, who is a really big deal. [Columbia Journalism Review]

Cool peek inside the playbook of every NFL team. [WSJ]

Adam Schefter works so hard he hasn’t taken a vacation in seven years! Also, he never goes to games or talks to players. [Washington Post]

Longtime writer for the New Yorker, Roger Angell, writes a goodbye piece to Derek Jeter. [New Yorker]

“Florida ‘traffic trap’ town suspends two police chiefs after ticket quota claims.” [Guardian]

David Muir, only 40, has taken over the chair for “ABC World News Tonight.” [NYT]

Did Northwestern use the wrong wristbands in the first half against Cal? [Inside NU]

Two California judges were disciplined for having sex in their chambers. [SF Gate]

Here’s a deep dive into Michigan State’s defense, which should keep the game close against Oregon. [Grantland]

An elephant dunking a basketball. [via BroBible]

New Zealand did a Haka Dance before the US smoked them in basketball.

Road rage! But at the :26 mark, it goes in a direction you won’t expect. [via 1000 Steps]

Here’s a dumb Marshawn Lynch commercial touting his relationship with Skittles. [via Hot Clicks]

Michigan State visits Oregon, in the 2014 season’s first great power conflict. The Spartans’ defense finished top five in yards/play allowed the past three years. The Ducks’ offense finished in the Top 11 in yards/play every year since 2010. Neither unit is quite at its apogee. Though, considering recruiting input, this could be a collision of the best college coaching achievements on either side of the ball.

Oregon returns most of its 2013 attack, barring a couple torn ACLs. QB1 Marcus Mariota is healthy and among the early Heisman favorites. The Ducks have strong running back depth and experience on the offensive line. Receiver losses are significant, but sustainable.

MSU underwent more transition on defense. The Spartans lose four guys from their seven-man defensive line rotation, two All-Conference caliber playmakers at linebacker in Denicos Allen and Bullough and first-round cornerback Darqueze Dennard. Stars such as Shilique Calhoun and Trae Waynes come back. The unit should still be formidable. But, in a system that places a heavy emphasis on players making reads and adjustments as a group, will they be fully operational in week two?

How about the players behind them? Oregon’s speed wears down defenses in normal conditions. The forecast for Eugene on Saturday is 95 degrees and sunny. The game kicks off in mid-afternoon. Michigan State should have to go deeper down the depth chart than normal. While the Spartans have recruited well, many of those players have hardly played.

That said, Michigan State may have the coaching advantage. Pat Narduzzi, the architect, is on the sideline for Michigan State. Oregon is run by Chip Kelly’s apprentices. His glowing residue is fading with each passing year. Running a system is one thing. Being able to tweak it creatively mid-game is another. Don’t discount the intimidation factor from Mark Dantonio’s withering stare.

Proceedings on the other side of the ball should interest as well. Longtime Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti retires. The Ducks also turn over a not that impressive defensive line. MSU improved from heinous to not so bad offensively at warp speed last season. But, they lose three multiple-year starters along their line. Inveterate gamer Connor Cook walked a tight rope at times and ranked outside the Top 50 last year in passer rating and yards/attempt. Few would expect stupendous efforts from those units. But their competence, for both teams, could make the difference between 9-3 and playoff contender.

Ramifications from this game could be grave for the Big Ten. The conference has faded in perception, for all but the delusional and openly partisan. In the playoff era, that perception will be all that matters. The committee “just knows a hard schedule when they see it.” The ACC may be the fifth best of the “Big Five.” That won’t matter for Florida State. The SEC champ is a lock. That leaves the Pac 12, Big 12, B1G and the SEC runner up fighting for two places.

Losing narrowly would be okay. Few would begrudge Michigan State covering the spread away at Oregon. But, a decisive loss could be a disaster. It would all but eliminate MSU. Going 8-0 in a watered down B1G won’t alter the narrative. With Wisconsin duffing it against LSU, any champ but an undefeated Ohio State would likely see the B1G shut out. Even in that scenario, would a 13-0 Ohio State against a soft schedule definitely get in ahead of an 11-1 Auburn or LSU that lost to Bama? That team would have a number of marquee wins. In the committee room, someone will be making that hard to refute argument.

Other Games

Michigan at Notre Dame… Another fierce rivalry fans enjoy bites the dust. Michigan has a trio of road rivalry games – Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State –  that will define Brady Hoke’s season (and potentially future). This may be the best opportunity for him to steal one. Critics will note Hoke is 6-9 away from home during the regular season at Michigan. The best win came against a 6-7 Northwestern team in 2011. Both teams looked excellent the first week, but neither played anyone. This should be where we find out whether Michigan’s offensive line, featuring a 270-pound true freshman left tackle, can offer more than smoke and mirrors. Michigan has won six of the last eight in the series. Though the last trip to South Bend was…ugly. Four of the last five have been decided by one score.

USC at Stanford… The Trojans embark on a new era, after washing off the Kiffin. The Cardinal are rebuilding on both lines. History, for what it’s worth, suggests this game will be close. USC upset Stanford 20-17 last November, the fourth game in a row decided by one score. Steve Sarkisian’s last two Stanford games at Washington were decided by one score as well. The Trojans would make a strong statement with a win here. Stanford, with an absurd schedule, may need one. This is the first of five games the Cardinals have against teams ranked in the present Top 20. The other four are on the road. That doesn’t include an additional road trip to Chris Petersen’s Washington. Stanford could be a top 10 to 15 team and finish 8-4.

Virginia Tech at Ohio State… The Hokies should be Ohio State’s most robust opponent until hitting East Lansing in early November. OSU’s offense, particularly the line, looked unconvincing for three quarters against Navy. Their defense, after one game against a triple option, is still a mystery after fading hard at the finish last year. We can presume Bud Foster’s defense will be good to very good, despite substantial departures up front. Though Tech’s offense, spearheaded by freshmen and a transfer who lost the Texas Tech job, is another matter. If the Hokies can spring the upset here, the schedule will be mediocre at best through the ACC title game. Frank Beamer back to double-digit wins?

Picks

We went 3-2 last weekend. Ohio State over the Navy spread by half a point on a busted coverage and a fumble return for a TD will happen. Moving forward…

Oregon (-12) vs. Michigan State… Michigan State’s defense hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber. They will do so with a number of inexperienced starters, in hot weather, across the country. Their offense ranked ninth in the Big Ten last year in yards/play against FBS teams. Even the best Dantonio teams have delivered some absolute turds on the road. (2010 – Iowa, 2011 – Notre Dame and Nebraska)

Vanderbilt (+20) vs. Ole Miss... Derek Mason’s defense played well against Temple, stopping 15/17 third downs. The Commodores’ offense turned the ball over seven times, and spotted Temple five drives within 40 yards of the end zone. Ole Miss can’t run the ball. This would be Bo Wallace throwing against a much better pass defense on the road. We’ll take the home dog in the SEC to keep it low scoring.

San Jose State (+32.5) at Auburn… Oddsmakers have lost a lot of money on Auburn over the past year. The course correction is coming. San Jose State can score. The Auburn defense is not that formidable. The Tigers take their foot off the gas and don’t give Bill Snyder much to look at and win by four touchdowns.

East Carolina (+16.5) at South Carolina… South Carolina’s defense looked inept against Texas A&M. All seven touchdowns came on sustained drives. East Carolina has a very good quarterback in Shane Carden. The Gamecocks improve and probably win. But, we don’t feel good about South Carolina covering big numbers when they are playing well.

UMass (+17) vs. Colorado… Colorado has not beaten an FBS team by 17 points since 2011. They haven’t done it outside the state of Colorado since 2007. They are fresh off another loss to Colorado State. It’s UMass, to be sure. But that’s just too many points on a long road trip.

[USA Today Sports]

We’ll have The Road to the Playoff column each Friday, previewing the college football weekend. Also, for the third year in a row, we’ll take a peek at future NFL players suiting up Saturday that you’ll want to keep an eye on.

Michigan State at Oregon, 6:30 pm, Fox Sports

OREGON – Marcus Mariota, QB, Redshirt Junior: I’ve got him as the top QB prospect for the 2015 entering this season. I still believe he would have been the 1st QB taken in the 2014 draft. There’s a lot to love – 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, gifted runner, accurate passer, good pocket presence, he totally looks the part. What doesn’t he do? Beat Stanford. The Cardinal are the two best teams he’s faced in the last two years, and this is how he’s done: 58% completions, -16 yards rushing, loss in 2013; 56 percent completions, interception, loss at home in 2012. Mariota completed 68 percent of all his passes in 2012 and 63 percent last year, and it’s evident he has something to prove against a tough defense led by a great coach.

MICHIGAN STATE – Connor Cook, QB Redshirt Junior: I won’t soon forget someone tweeting that Cook would have good value as a Heisman contender back in January early in the Rose Bowl. My first thought: Lunacy! Cook had a nice performance against Ohio State a month earlier (60 percent completions, 304 yards, three TDs in an upset) but Stanford was a completely different animal. And then … Cook was poised and made good decisions (except this one) and finished with 332 yards on 61 percent completions and two TDs in an upset. Then I started asking around to NFL scouts and Cook began to check the boxes: above average arm, good pocket awareness, not a statue when he drops back despite being 6-foot-4 … is Connor Cook a 1st round candidate in 2015? Yes. Naturally, a word of caution: He’s only got 12 starts since winning the job in week two. One comparison I heard: He’s Andy Dalton with a better arm and more mobility.

MICHIGAN STATE – Jeremy Langford, RB, Redshirt Senior: The Big 10’s 5th leading rusher last year (1,422 yards) has come a long way since being primarily a special teams player in his first two seasons, sitting behind stars Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell. Langford turns 23 in December, and he falls somewhere between those two as a pro prospect. Baker was a 5-foot-8 speed merchant; Bell was a 240-pound workhorse. With good vision but average speed, right now Langford is a late-round prospect. There’s no way he’ll be running through holes this big against Oregon. [Spartans fans: I'm aware the defense is peppered with pro prospects. Relax. Gotta save some folks for the Nebraska and Ohio State games.]

OREGON – Arik Armstead, Defensive End, Junior: Intriguing pro prospect because at 6-foot-7, 295-pounds, he’s a freakish athlete. As in, suited-up-for-the-Ducks-basketball-team. As such, he’s raw on the football field, and put up modest stats last year (three tackles for loss, one sack). It matters not. When you’re that big – he could measure taller; some reports say he’s 6-foot-8 and have great feet/speed/athleticism, you’re going to be coveted. The Oregonian wrote last year that a scout said he’s the 2nd best pro prospect on the Ducks. Now that he’s turned his attention to football, Armstead is one or two big games away from declaring for the pros on a limited reel and “potential.” I don’t think he’ll run a sub 4.5 at the Combine like Mr. Clowney, but even a 4.7 would be impressive.

Stanford at USC, 3:30 pm, ABC

USC – Leonard Williams, DT, Junior: There’s a chance he could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. Actually had better stats as a true freshman (13.5 TFL, 8 sacks, vs. 12.5 and 5 last year), but the Trojans were in disarray in 2013 and Williams was banged up. If you want to see two guys who will play on Sundays next Fall, keep an eye on Williams (6-foot-5, 300 pounds)  vs. Stanford’s hulking Andrus Peat (6-foot-7, 320). It has the feel of The Incredible Hulk colliding with The Thing, assuming they go head-to-head.

USC – Nelson Agholor, WR, Junior: Blazing fast, explosive in the return game (see Cal, last year) and potentially one of the five top wide receivers eligible for the 2015 draft. Born in Nigeria, Agholor is 6-foot-1 and 190, and could take advantage of the one weakness on the Stanford defense – no elite cornerbacks. How high he could rise in the 2015 draft could depend on whether or not other elite WRs (Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham) stumble, don’t heal from injury, or get in more trouble with the law.

STANFORD – Ty Montgomery, WR, Senior: Agholor gets the buzz because of the speed and because he plays for the Trojans, but for my money, Montgomery is the best receiver in the Pac-12. Terrific hands, quick feet, and in this highlight reel from last season, even displays a lot of toughness. He’s listed at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds but I don’t think he’ll measure nearly that big at the Combine. Returned two kicks for scores last year, scored two rushing, and caught 10 TD passes. Dude makes plays. Last 1st-round, early 2nd-round pick. Coming off a shoulder injury. Heard a scout compare him to Keenan Allen, the former Cal star who was injured, fell to the 3rd round, and had a great rookie year with the Chargers.

Jim Delany believes writing off the Big Ten after week two would be premature. That makes sense. The trouble is the system set up by Delany and others does not. It will choose four teams based on perception (They know it when they see it). The Big Ten already faced a struggle there from past failures. Last Saturday saw nearly every one of its major programs gelded on a major public stage. No defeat, by itself, was crippling. But the combined effect, in such a short time frame, confirmed an already entrenched narrative: the Big Ten stinks.

Michigan State collapsed on the road at Oregon. The Spartans held a nine-point lead in the third quarter. They were poised to piss in the Yalu. Then, the floor fell out from under the defense. Tempo and heat. Oregon posted four unanswered touchdowns in its final five drives. The Ducks won by 19. A road game at Autzen was a tough ask. Spartan fans won’t be too dispirited by their effort. But, the best Big Ten team being unable to keep it within two touchdowns against, perhaps, the best Pac 12 team is not a positive.

Notre Dame shut out Michigan 31-0 in South Bend. Brady Hoke is now 1-11 outside Ann Arbor vs. teams that finished the season above .500. Barring an Irish collapse, this will be the Wolverines’ seventh-straight loss, regardless of venue, against teams that reach a bowl game. The scoreline was a tad flattering to Notre Dame. Had Michigan converted third downs, not turned the ball over, possessed a competent kicker and caught the opposing quarterback on a marginally less effective day, they might have kept it within two touchdowns. The Wolverines could bounce back to finish 9-3, and convince no one.

Ohio State lost by two touchdowns in the horseshoe to Virginia Tech, with the marauding Hokie defense sacking J.T. Barrett seven times and hitting him 31 times. This season may be a write off for the Buckeyes with Braxton Miller out. It will be sold as one now. But, Braxton wasn’t going to be blocking for himself or featuring in the back seven of the defense. The Big Ten’s two biggest programs, by name, were foiled by Scott Loeffler and Brian VanGorder, the coordinators from Auburn’s 2012 team.

On smaller stages, the Big Ten lost the B1G-MAC challenge. Central Michigan crushed Purdue 38-21 in West Lafayette, with Michigan transfer Thomas Rawls rushing for 155 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries. Northwestern dropped its in-state battle to Northern Illinois 23-15. Iowa needed two touchdowns in the final six minutes to limp away with a 17-13 win at home against Ball State. Let us not overlook Nebraska, who needed this crazy touchdown catch from Ameer Abdullah to fend off McNeese State 31-24. Here’s what it looked like to be on the losing end of that.

Delany is correct that half the non-conference games and all the conference games remain. However, the most high-profile B1G game outside the conference left is…Michigan against Utah? If the Wolverines win that, it accomplishes little. If they lose at home, it incites the narrative torrent further. B1G contenders won’t get national credit for going 8-0 in a watered down conference schedule. A 12-1 Wisconsin’s best regular season wins would be Nebraska, Iowa or Minnesota. A 12-1 Michigan State’s would be…Michigan or Ohio State, maybe.

Narrative gets written at the top. The ACC is quite similar to the Big Ten. The conference has a terrible bottom tier and a broad swatch of mediocrity. Its national powers have been waning for the better part of a decade. It has had one team finish in the SRS Top 10 since 2009. The difference is the ACC has Florida State, who crushed Florida beat Auburn and won the national title. Clemson beat LSU in the bowl game after 2012, beat Georgia to open the season and beat Ohio State in its bowl game.

College Football is cyclical. Perhaps, the Big Ten will build up again. But, top Big Ten teams have to assert themselves outside the conference to alter the narrative. Last Saturday was a major missed opportunity that, barring a tortured scenario of multiple-loss carnage, will leave the Big Ten on the outside looking in.

Should have pushed for eight teams with five automatic bids, Jim.

The Good…

Undefeated… The ACC went 11-0 against non-conference teams. Seven of them were FCS schools. Two of the others were Troy and Tulane. A ranked North Carolina team trailed San Diego State at home in the fourth quarter. But, with Virginia Tech beating Ohio State, the weekend was a comprehensive narrative win.

Irish Still Fighting… Notre Dame had five players suspended during an academic fraud investigation. That didn’t stop them from thumping Michigan 31-0 at home. Much of that may have been the Wolverines not being very good. But, a much improved Everett Golson being undisturbed by pressure and making throws into decent enough coverage should encourage. Of course, this was just one “test” on the Irish schedule. ND still has Stanford, North Carolina, Florida State (Away), Arizona State (Away), Louisville and USC (Away) awaiting them.

The Not So Good…

Texas is Still Texas… Texas tried to avenge their bad 2013 loss to BYU. They did not do so. Taysom Hill ran for 99 yards and three touchdowns (hurdling a dude in the process). The Longhorns’ offense, devastated by injuries, turned the ball over four times and averaged fewer than four yards/play. The Cougars won 41-7. But, Tyrone Swoopes “had a lot of fun” out there. So there’s that.

Defeat From The Jaws of Victory… Stanford had the ball across the USC 40-yard line on all nine drives. From that field position, they scored 10 points. That would be how you dominate a game along both sides of the ball and lose. Play-calling may be the cheapest critique. But, here, it’s hard to look away from it. The Cardinal did everything else right.

Anchored Down… Vanderbilt cut the turnovers down from seven to one. That was about the only positive to take from their 41-3 shellacking by Ole Miss. The Rebels did not punt the entire game. The Commodores’ lone scoring drive came in the 4th, after falling behind 41-0. Vanderbilt received the ball on the opponents’ five-yard line, lost four yards in three plays and kicked a field goal. Derek Mason has gone form zero to punchline in about 10 days.

In a Losing Effort…

Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 31/46 for 475 yards and seven touchdowns in the Eagles’ 59-52 loss to the FBS Washington Huskies. Runner up goes to Buffalo who scored three touchdowns to pull within a score of Army, after being down 30 in the 4th quarter.

Gambling Moment of the Weekend…

Alabama’s 41-0 win over Florida Atlantic was ruled final, after a lightning delay in the fourth quarter. The point spread, at many casinos, was 42. The game was delayed with Alabama about to kick a field goal from 4th and goal on the four yard line. All bets were cancelled. A strong second-place performance by Arizona having a late defensive touchdown against UTSA called back that would have covered the spread.

GIF of the Week…

LSU super-recruit Leonard Fournette scored his first LSU touchdown, on a four-yard scamper against Sam Houston State. He then pulled a Desmond Howard. This is probably just a forgettable moment from an 18-year-old with a promising future.  We cannot believe a teenager who spent two years being feted by the national college football media and a summer being compared to Adrian Peterson would have an inflated self-image.

[USA Today Sports]

Arizona stunned Oregon for the second year in a row, but this time the Ducks lost at home to rebounding Rich Rodriguez, 31-24. Marcus Mariota, the Heisman front-runner and clubhouse leader to be the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft, looked ordinary a week after getting beat up by Washington State, rushing nine times for one yard and fumbling twice, including one that locked up the game in the final two minutes (see below).

Thing is, the loss isn’t that damaging for the Pac-12’s shot at getting into the 4-team playoff. USC already lost to Boston College, and now Oregon has gone down, but it’s still the 2nd best conference in the country after the SEC because of incredible depth: Arizona (5-0) and UCLA (4-0) remain unbeaten, and Stanford is 3-1 with a loss to the Trojans. The Big 12, led by unbeaten Baylor and Oklahoma, is 3rd.

Somebody from the Pac-12 – perhaps even a team with two losses – is going to have to sweat out getting into the playoff. Oregon/Stanford vs. Arizona/USC/UCLA will almost certainly be the Pac 12 title game, with the winner hoping that Baylor or Oklahoma haven’t done enough, or Florida State has lost.

The biggest loser after the Arizona win is the Big Ten, and specifically, Michigan State. The best team (by far) in the Big Ten lost in Autzen by 19 in September (though it felt closer than that) but has won its two games since by a combined 101 points. The Spartans will be tested Saturday at home against Nebraska, but even with a victory, the only opportunity for a quality win is … 1-loss Ohio State?

Yes, the SEC teams will beat each other up every week (starting Saturday), but good luck finding a committee member today who doesn’t have two SEC teams in the playoff: October 3rd:

1. Alabama
2. Florida State (unimpressive, but did beat Clemson)
3. Oklahoma (wins over Tennessee, West Virginia are better than Baylor’s)
4. Texas A&M (two quality wins)

5. Auburn
6. Baylor

If I’m projecting the rest of the season, and this one will change weekly, here’s what I’ve got:

1. Florida State (should go unbeaten with easy schedule)
2. Baylor (think/hope it wins at Oklahoma)
3. Alabama
4. UCLA (P-12 winner)

5. Notre Dame (one loss a narrow one to … FSU?)
6. Auburn (oh that damn schedule!)
7. Michigan State (only one loss, but Notre Dame and Auburn played a tougher schedule)

Nebraska’s Jake Cotton was called for a false start on this play, but the five penalty yards were a small price to pay in exchange for entertaining a nation. The GIF is a serious contender for Best Fall Of the Year, Non-Fake Punt division.

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